Global Oil Forum discussion, Sept. 3 2014: Middle East Risk
14:00:04 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Oil Forum Discussion: Middle East Risk
Welcome to our weekly oil forum discussion on the outlook for the Middle East and its oil industries
14:00:41 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Today we have a very distinguished panel with us:
- Samuel Ciszuk, senior security adviser to the Swedish Energy Agency
- Andrew Hammond, Middle East policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
- Scott Lucas, professor of American Studies of the University of Birmingham and founding editor of EA WorldView
- Jordan Perry, principal analyst, Middle East and North Africa, at risk consultancy Maplecroft
- Hannah Poppy, senior Middle East intelligence analyst at the Risk Advisory Group
| 14:00:49 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Hello everyone
14:01:09 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com And a few more MENA analysts in the audience, I can see 14:01:24 Adriano Ranelli innowatio.it hello everyone 14:01:27 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk Afternoon everyone 14:01:35 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net Hi everyone 14:02:04 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com Good afternoon, everyone 14:02:52 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Perhaps we should start today, given the dominant headlines, with Syria? 14:03:13 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com How should we read this latest execution? 14:03:37 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Will it change the framework of engagement at all? 14:03:57 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk @Christopher — Wider context is that it is a sign that Islamic State is under pressure in Iraq 14:04:01 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk And is worried about it 14:04:01 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com What is the IS strategy here? 14:04:05 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Other than generating headlines? |
||
| 14:04:11 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | In addition to being checked in advance in Syria |
| 14:04:32 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | They can benefit in one of two contrasting ways: |
| 14:04:46 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | 1) Deter US from airstrikes and support of Kurdish-Iraqi counter-offensive |
| 14:04:57 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | or 2) Draw US into full-blown ground intervention |
| 14:05:09 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | In Iraq |
| 14:05:50 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Scott, @Christopher – in connection with Scott’s two points, I think the provocative nature of these killings should be underscored |
| 14:06:28 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | IS has clearly demonstrated its savvy ability to manipulate both social and print media |
| 14:07:08 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | It’s interesting Scott, that you explicitly referred to the group “generating headlines” |
| 14:07:11 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Jordan — Agreed, but I think they are at risk of a backfire with the presentation of brutality |
| 14:07:21 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | I would say that this is one of the main thrusts of the killings |
| 14:07:26 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | And they got “scooped” on this execution before they could roll out their PR campaign |
| 14:07:54 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | It is to provide a platform through which to connect still further with Western would-be Jihadis |
| 14:07:59 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Jordan — But do they risk alienating local communities in Iraq and Syria with this? |
| 14:08:11 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | And thus risk a stable base for their area of rule? |
| 14:08:59 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | And to provoke the US and its allies into further airstrikes – which does little materiel damage to the amorphous nature of IS, but acts as a clarion call to recruits |
| 14:09:08 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Scott – absolutely |
| 14:09:31 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | There are a lot of questions surrounding the longevity/viability of the “Islamic State” |
| 14:10:03 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | I think, in the longer term, loss of some of the main Sunni tribal actors in northern Iraq could be its undoing |
| 14:10:28 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | As well as its dubious ability to defend its territory in light of the West arming the Kurds |
| 14:11:02 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | I think IS is at risk if its image of success is punctured |
| 14:11:20 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | Both in Iraq (Mosul Dam and Amerli as cases in last 2 weeks) and in Syria |
| 14:11:27 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | @Scott exactly, so it has to keep up the momentum of attacks/offensives/violence |
| 14:12:01 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Hannah — Where next in Iraq? |
| 14:12:13 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | @Scott good question |
| 14:12:17 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Scott, Hannah – also, the Kurdish Peshmerga have made some important gains in the last couple of days |
| 14:12:18 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | (In Syria, we’re watching IS attack on regime airport in Deir Ez Zor in east) |
| 14:12:30 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | the options for new offensives in Iraq are narrowing |
| 14:12:44 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | http://eaworldview.com/2014/09/syria–daily–islamic–state–capture–regimes–deirez–zor–airport–east/ |
| 14:12:57 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | Bringing the fight back to IS not just in Amerli, but also in places like Zumar in the north west |
| 14:13:08 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | personally I think that they may fall back on car bombings in major cities |
| 14:13:25 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Hannah @Jordan — Meanwhile are we looking at counter-offensive against Tikrit and/or Mosul? |
| 14:13:57 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | @scott not convinced the Iraqi army can manage either yet |
| 14:14:16 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | reports today of another attempt to take Tikrit last night though |
| 14:14:21 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Scott There have been clashes on off in Tikrit since its capture in June, including several short-lived offensives |
| 14:15:03 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | I think IS will continue to lose territory to the Peshmerga and ISF, but… |
| 14:15:36 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | ….they have demonstrated their ability to slow down or prevent these gains through various tricks – some of which have prevented their foes from re-capturing
Tikrit |
| 14:15:47 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | Booby trapping buildings, for example |
| 14:16:13 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | @Jordan the way I see it IS has two categories of territory- 1. core areas like Mosul
2. areas it attacks to distract ISF from core areas |
| 14:16:17 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | In Jalula in the eastern governorate of Doyala – near the Peshmerga/IS frontline – the Peshmerga have been weighed down by these hazards |
| 14:16:23 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | *Diyala |
| 14:16:40 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Jordan @Hannah — Good points |
| 14:16:59 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | Watching Tikrit to see if there is more coordination of ground offensive with aerial campaign, including outside actors |
| 14:17:08 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Hannah – yes. IIS relies on its mobility to quickly concentrate for attack in some areas, make temporary gains on its periphery – but it’s questionable how long they can retain these areas |
| 14:17:19 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | A sort of ‘dynamic stalemate’ emerging, if you will |
| 14:17:26 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | @Jordan exactly |
| 14:18:21 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | I think that the US and its allies can make the biggest difference through arming the Peshmerga and other proxies on the ground |
| 14:19:03 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | One of the main challenges with airstrikes is what to hit |
| 14:19:22 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | But also ISF morale is very important. They need some big wins. Hence the coverage of Amerli |
| 14:19:25 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | So you take out a few humvees now and again – so what? That’s not going to stop
IS |
| 14:20:07 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | Bombing somewhere like Mosul is clearly off the table because of the risk to civilians and the need to win hearts and minds amongst the Sunni population |
| 14:20:48 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | The inflow of arms to the Kurds, though, I think has been making a difference – and |
has supported their gains in places like Zumar and the east of the country
| 14:20:55 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | *been |
| 14:22:45 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | interestingly one rumour a contact told me about is that the Peshmerga planned its loss of northern towns on purpose, to get the US to intervene & give them money |
| 14:22:59 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Hannah @Jordan — I think IS has got a problem with the tension between being a “State” and an “insurgent organization” |
| 14:23:26 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Scott Yes, and a lot of costs come with being a pesudo-state |
| 14:23:27 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | They need money and structure to run Mosul and Tikrit, as well as Raqqa in Syria |
| 14:23:30 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | whether or not its true, shows how important they have become for anyone hoping to back the fight against IS |
| 14:23:45 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | They seems to have funds but they are very short on manpower |
| 14:23:57 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | If they lose Sunni tribes, I think they are in trouble |
| 14:24:01 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | A lot ios made about the wealth of IS – which, for an insurgent group, ranks it as one of the top in the world |
| 14:24:35 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Jordan — Agreed, but you have to be able to tie that wealth to infrastructure and development |
| 14:24:48 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | Some estimates point to as much as US$3 million a day in terms of local oil sales etc. – which would place it as wealthy if not more wealthy than pre-2001 Taliban |
| 14:25:16 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net | @Scott @Jordan and a lot of the local/international NGOs have apparently left
(people were relying on them for food etc) |
| 14:25:24 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | @Scott – exactly the point I was going to drive at – but part of this wealth needs to be put into running a pseudo-state |
| 14:25:39 Scott Lucas | bham.ac.uk | @Jordan — Look for that number to fall as the infrastructure of the oilfields erodes and production falls |
| 14:25:57 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | Mosul is a good example, where sources indicate there has been electricity and water shortages |
| 14:26:14 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com | Providing public services may be a secondary aim for IS, but…. |
| 14:26:35 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Do the latest twists in Syria/Iraq change the oil equation at all?
14:26:51 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com ….they will need to do so in order to maintain the mainstream Sunni “lesser of two evils” perception versus Baghdad 14:27:06 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Is oil production and export capacity still basically safe in Iraq at least? 14:27:21 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Although I understand that IS is controlling quite a lot of Syrian oil? 14:27:24 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com So far, some Sunni tribal federations have lumped their support with IS – not least because they hated Maliki 14:27:58 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com But with Maliki now out of power (at least in the conventional sense), this obstacle to collaboration with Baghdad has been removed 14:28:12 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com That’s not to say I’m hopeful about PM-designate Haider al-Abadi 14:28:13 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se hi all, just weighing in on oil question briefly before have to rush: yes, oil appears safe for now 14:28:45 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk Agreed with Sam on Iraqi oil 14:28:47 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se …as panelists have been saying, there is a bit of a stalemate which has developed 14:28:58 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Christopher I think the south is still ok in terms of attacks (the threat is still there but no higher now than before) 14:28:59 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk IS is selling oil from Syrian fields in east 14:29:08 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Samuel – it’s correct that IS controls about 60% of Syria’s (albeit small) oil supply? That’s an estimate I’ve seen bandied around 14:29:10 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se and IS seems to lack the power to move into, particularly deep into, Shi’a territory in Iraq. 14:29:12 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk But no evidence of long-term sustained production 14:29:59 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se it would require them to shift gears seriously military power-wise, so to speak. Probably beyond capability for now 14:30:50 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Samuel, Scott: also, there is the question of whether IS has the technical know |
||
how. I understand they very recently appointed their own oil ‘minister’ 14:30:51 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com So unlikely for the short-term anyway?
| 14:30:54 Samuel Ciszuk |
energimyndigheten.se @Jordan: Yes, but they cannot do much with it as they lack the spare parts, engineers etc needed. Not to speak of the relevant off take capacity (pipes) |
| 14:31:30 Samuel Ciszuk | energimyndigheten.se basically they can get a few thousand barrels per day out perhaps and sell through complex chains of middlemen to buyers |
| 14:32:08 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com @Samuel: yes – it seems that in Iraq at least, of the seven or so fields they control production is much lower than one would normally expect – about half for each |
| 14:32:12 Samuel Ciszuk | energimyndigheten.se like any one having to launder money or stolen goods, they receive much less then the listed price for Syrian crude (whatever that is, since it is not broadly traded anymore) |
| 14:32:36 Jordan Perry | maplecroft.com Yes, a significant discount on Iraq oil, for example. |
| 14:32:45 Samuel Ciszuk | energimyndigheten.se @Jordan: Yes, although if it remains even at 50% for any longer time, I would be surprised |
| 14:33:13 Hannah Poppy | riskadvisory.net One thing bearing in mind for the southern Iraqi oil fields is that in the absence of |
effective security forces, a non-terrorism incident could spook companies/prompt evacuations
14:33:30 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com @ Sam. Sorry what does the 50% refer to?
14:33:37 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Jordan: few buyers had the capacity for Syria’s rather particular crudes before
the war and most of them were in EU. They are not buying, which is why most of it in the end ends up bought by the Syrian regime 14:33:58 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Christopher: 50% of field capacity. production level 14:34:12 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com In Syria?
14:34:23 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Samuel – yes – I’ve heard claims that the Syrian regime is buying IS oil in return for protection from airstrikes and the like.
14:34:55 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se I have seen numbers brandied around that IS controls about 70-80 000 b/d of
production capacity, but in reality I would doubt production in their territory to be much above 25 000 b/d and rapidly shrinking
14:34:58 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Christopher – in IS-controlled fields in Iraq, at least from my understanding 14:35:14 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com tks
14:35:20 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk @Jordan — The oil was being traded because Syrian regime needs it
14:35:30 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk But bust-up since June complicates the arrangements
14:36:02 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com I think it highlights the interesting relationship between IS and al-Assad
14:36:15 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Jordan: I doubt there is much of political deals surrounding those sales, although
it might have happened. Most likely there will have been two or more middlemen between IS and Assad regime anyway… loaded trucks being sold individually to a local authority for instance, which needs fuel.
14:36:24 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se but it could have happened… 14:36:35 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Talking of oil …
14:36:40 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Can I ask about Saudi Arabia?
14:36:53 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com We have had the first confirmed attack this week on an oil/gas facility for many years
14:36:55 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com What was behind Monday’s attack, which resulted in a “small fire” at a gas pipeline in the Eastern Province?
14:37:02 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Who were the assailants?
14:37:08 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Any views?
14:37:15 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Shi’ite? Sunni Islamists?
14:37:36 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net Nothing confirmed yet, but armed attacks on police/sec forces there are not uncommon
14:37:43 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net specifically in that area
14:37:58 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu Hi all – seems to me that because it was a small-scale attack, it was perhaps local Shia. Sunni jihadists would likely have made a bigger effort.
14:38:04 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Christopher: Very hard to say whether the official Saudi story re stray bullet was full picture or not
14:38:31 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk Beyond this incident, what is latest on Shia protests & discontent in EP?
14:38:46 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com Isn’t there a possibility that the assailants could have been tribes disgruntled with the authorities?
14:38:56 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se in any case it does not seem like it was a very important pipeline, more for local gas network
14:39:18 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu One potential motive among the local population is the case of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr – any day now news should come of whether a death penalty will be applied or not. Though the attackers could be jumping the gun since we don’t know yet.
14:39:27 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com Attacks in Egypt and Yemen indicating similar incidents point to tribal involvement
14:39:31 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se Which means it is perhaps too much to see this as a significant escalation. If we see another one, then perhaps we should raise the threat level … so to speak
14:39:46 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Jordan in this case it’s still not clear if the pipeline was the target
14:39:56 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu It could well be tribal, though we haven’t really seen that before in that region.
14:40:00 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Saudi Arabia said yesterday it detained 88 people, more than half Saudis, on suspicion of plotting “terrorist” attacks at home and abroad 14:40:10 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Significant?
14:40:38 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Christopher: Yes, but not changing the existing picture in my view
14:41:00 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Christopher don’t know if this applies in this case, but often these announcements clump together lots of different arrests
14:41:11 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net making it seem like more of a big deal than it is
14:41:12 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se a draconian security clamp down has been largely successful to minimise the occurrence of attacks in a country rife with support for militant Salafism
14:41:15 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu There is pressure on the Saudi government to show that it is making progress against Sunni Jihadists, pressure from the US government. These statements are always suspiciously vague.
14:41:37 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Christopher – would agree with Samuel. Nothing to suggest this is any different from routine Saudi response to such incidents 14:41:45 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Andrew: Good pint! 14:41:52 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se
point, of course
14:42:47 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com So not linked to what is going on elsewhere in the region as far as we can tell?
14:42:50 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Andrew – I think also that the revival of Houthi insurgency in Yemen over the last few months will also again become an acute concern for the Saudi authorities
14:42:54 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu On the pressure to show results issue – I think it’s largely why KSA, UAE and Bahrain more or less completely caved over their dispute with Qatar this week
14:43:27 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu @Jordan – absolutely, agree
14:43:46 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk @Christopher — The attack is not linked to the regional issues
14:44:06 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com @ Jordan: How is Saudi Arabia likely to respond to what is happening in Yemen?
14:44:07 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk The Saudi response, showing firm line with detentions, is linked to concern over Syria and Iraq
14:44:39 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Christopher Saudi is already heavily involved in events in Yemen
14:44:46 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Andrew: what is you view on where next in the intra-GCC spat with Qatar?
14:44:59 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net working through diplomatic channels to get the Houthis to back down
14:45:01 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Andrew – I think KSA may be especially worried not just by the gains the made in northern Yemen earlier this year but by this campaign of civil disobedience the Houthi leadership has called for
14:45:05 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu Saudi government has certainly taken a tougher line publicly on the ISIS issue in recent weeks.
14:45:42 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu @Jordan that’s a good point – return of protests in the Gulf; not good
14:45:47 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com This could further destabilise the alreday fragile transition in Yemen – and re-open a Pandora’s Box of security concerns for Saudi
14:46:42 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu @samuel I think the spat is really set aside for now. the UAE were very gung-ho, up
to the last moment. Then suddenly the unofficial and official tweeters and columnists completely changed tune. I think Saudi Arabia put its foot down.
14:47:57 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu Bottom line: Qatar keeps Saudi political issues out of Arab media space, a service
its provided since 2007. Its reporting on Egypt is provocative but Riyadh can – just –
stomach it. for now
14:48:14 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu I mean Al Jazeera, mainly.
14:48:41 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Andrew – I thought the connection you made with Nimr al-Nimr was interesting. I
wonder if there was any evidence of such sabotage attacks on infrastrcuture following his shooting/arrest back in 2012?
14:49:49 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Christopher – sorry, just saw your question on the Houthis
14:50:09 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu I can’t recall that there was, though I might be wrong. In Wikileaks, such small-scale attacks on pipelines by local Shia are a constant fear of the Interior Ministry
14:50:32 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Andrew: Yes, my impression too. But then will they just put the spat in the
freezer and live with withdrawn ambassadors for some time, or do you think there might be a move for official reconciliation? there are pros and cons for both Saudi and Qatar with making up
14:50:42 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com I think it’s possible that if they make further gains in northern Yemen which again threaten Saudi border, they could step up military intervention on the frontier – as they have in the past
14:50:52 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu If it is connected to Nimr, it would be a kind of warning. His execution could reignite the streets.
14:51:14 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com Saudi has also been accused of funding armed Salafists that have waged a conflict with the Houthis
14:52:17 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu @Samuel I think the UAE will be really loath to send their ambassador back, perhaps it won’t h happen. The signs are that the governments are still arguing about it.
14:53:28 Samuel Ciszuk energimyndigheten.se @Andrew: Yes, I think this probably will go on for a long time, but be allowed to fester in the background
14:53:54 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Jordan I think that Saudi has actually played a stabilising role in Yemen recently. Pressuring everyone but the Houthis to back down of fuel prices for example
14:55:05 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Andrew do you think that Shia activists are able to mobilise in numbers in Saudi any more? It’s been pretty quiet.
14:55:37 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Hannah – yes, but I think for a long time they have been a sectarian actor who has put protecting their border or clobbering Shia militants like the Houthis above preserving security unity in Yemen
14:57:32 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu @Hannah I doubt it really; I think a return to large numbers on the street really depends on events in Bahrain. general trend remains downwards after protest high of 2011
14:57:51 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Andrew completely agreed
14:58:34 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com So not much to worry about at the moment for the oil industry?
14:58:50 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com (apologies for bringing this back to the LCD) 14:59:15 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk @Christopher — Apart from daily chaos? 14:59:21 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com
14:59:24 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com Same story as in previous weeks in Iraq – threat to the Basra Gulf and the vast majority of production remains limited. Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey in the north will remain offline, though
14:59:27 Andrew Hammond ecfr.eu Re Saudi: in medium term from second wind of Jihadism inspired by ISIS
14:59:35 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk I would think that there are specific issues such as Libya
14:59:46 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk Which may be more important than the Islamic State threat
14:59:53 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com yes
15:00:26 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Scott – yes, the threats to business posed by escalation in Libya has been downplayed, I feel
15:00:32 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk And question in Iraq is long-term arrangements, e.g. between Baghdad and Kurdistan
15:01:17 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk (I’m sure Iran would be glad to ease concerns by putting more oil on the market….)
15:01:20 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Scott – yes, whether the Kurds can make better headway with al-Abadi at the
helm – and whether al-Abdi can win over moderate Sunnis in the north which could
help cripple IS advance
15:01:42 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net @Scott yes for me the KRG question is still at the top of the list in terms of risks/opportunities for the sector
15:02:25 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com @ Hannah: just picking up on that comment on KRG quickly …
15:02:46 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com risks/opportunities are where mainly in KRG?
15:03:48 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Maybe we should talk about that next time?
15:04:00 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net yes, good starter question for next time!
15:04:06 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com @Christopher – from risks perspective, I would say the older fields surrounding
Kirkuk. Quite near the IS-Peshmerga frontline
15:04:07 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com Many thanks everyone for a fascinating discussion
15:04:14 Hannah Poppy riskadvisory.net thanks everyone
15:04:20 Jordan Perry maplecroft.com Cheers
15:04:30 Alex Lawler thomsonreuters.com thanks!
15:04:35 Simon Falush thomsonreuters.com Thanks much!
15:05:32 Christopher Johnson thomsonreuters.com I will make a pdf copy of this discussion If anyone would like a copy, please email me: christopher.johnson@thomsonreuters.com 15:06:03 Scott Lucas bham.ac.uk Thanks everybody….
